France and Paris in particular are enjoying the Olympics, which is turning out to be a triumph for France in terms of medals won and Paris as a city. Whether this translates into a boon for president Macron is much less clear – we ultimately think not.
We expect few serious political developments until the second half of August. The political debate in France focuses on perhaps four topics.
The first is the legality of the caretaker government and the constitutionality of their role (in for example policing of the Olympics). The second is the choice of a potential prime minister. Here the debate has shifted from the preferred candidate of the left (Lucie Castets) to leaders on the right (Xavier Bertrand and Laurent Wauqiuez) to compromise/technocrat type prime ministers (Michel Barnier and Bernard Caseneuve).
Thirdly, commentators are thinking beyond the Olympics to the race for mayor of Paris – with former ministers Rachida Dati and Clement Beaune mentioned as front runners if Annie Hildago does not stand again. Fourthly, there is discussion of the forthcoming budget and how France can reform its financial situation. Former finance minister Bruno Le Maire has recommended spending caps for each government department, but none of these can be acted upon given the caretaker role of the government.
In summary, the mood in France is vastly different to a month ago, but we suspect that as September approaches, the political climate will again prove difficult. For the next couple of weeks, we expect the jockeying for position as prime minister to continue, with the expectation of a breakdown in the leftwing coalition.
Read the full article here
