Russian President Vladimir Putin is having a very social year as his country continues to wage war in Ukraine.
So far, Putin has met top leaders from Asian countries including China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. That’s plenty of publicity for a heavily sanctioned individual from a country facing sweeping trade restrictions.
And there’s a strategic reason for all those meetings, Sean McFate, an adjunct professor at the Syracuse University Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, told Business Insider.
Russia is trying to emerge from diplomatic isolation and is looking to forge strategic relationships beyond autocratic partners like China, North Korea, and Iran, McFate said.
“Putin is eyeing strategic swing nations like India, which opposes China and trades with Russia,” he added. “That gives Russia some advantage over China, as their relationship has chilled somewhat.”
On Wednesday, Putin rubbed shoulders with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Russia. The two countries were set to discuss a range of issues, including trade and investment.
This meeting came on the heels of Putin’s trip to Mongolia, where he met President Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh.
Mongolia, as a member of the International Criminal Court, should have arrested Putin, who has an ICC arrest warrant against him.
But the East Asian nation said it couldn’t throw Putin in jail because it depends on Russia — an oil and gas giant — for its energy security.
“This supply is critical to ensure our existence and that of our people,” a Mongolian government spokesperson told Politico.
It’s about neutrality — and the economy
Mongolia’s explanation underscores the scale of Russia’s economy. It’s the 11th largest in the world and has an annual GDP of about $2 trillion, according to the World Bank.
While Russia’s economy pales in comparison to the US’ $27.4 trillion GDP, Russia is still an important partner for many developing economies.
In particular, Russia accounts for about one-tenth of the world’s oil production, making it an important resource supplier.
Before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s single largest trading partner was the European Union.
In the last two years, Russia has managed to pivot to supplying China and India, as well as nearly anyone who wants to buy discounted energy, be it Sri Lanka when it was in an economic meltdown just two years ago or Turkey — a NATO member and aspiring EU member.
While some countries, like China and Vietnam, have historical ties with Russia, others, like India and Sri Lanka, have also cited economic self-interest for their ongoing relationship with Russia — particularly if they’re in difficult conditions themselves. Most, if not all of them, have also taken a neutral position on the war in Ukraine.
Serik Zhumangarin, Kazakhstan’s deputy prime minister, told Bloomberg last month that the country would no longer “blindly follow the sanctions” if the restrictions impact the country’s key companies. Russia was Kazakhstan’s largest trade partner before the war started.
He told the media outlet that some of the sanctions against Moscow had hurt Kazakhstan more than Russia, and the West has done nothing to compensate the Central Asian nation.
Using the economy to explain cozy diplomatic relationships with Russia appears to be gaining favor now that the Ukraine war is in its 31st month.
After all, Russia is a large and globally integrated economy that even the European Union is still trying to decouple from.
Even China, which in 2022 declared its friendship with Russia as a partnership with “no limits,” now appears to be more keen on presenting the relationship in more pragmatic, businesslike terms.
Just last month, China framed Vice Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Russia as one that seeks “complementary advantages and huge potential for practical cooperation” between Moscow and Beijing.
Russia is wooing the Global South
Partnering with Russia on economic terms is unlikely to alarm the US and Europe, even if there are concerns and strong criticism.
“Russia’s foreign policy blitz is unlikely to be a threat to the EU and NATO,” Syracuse University’s McFate said.
That’s because Moscow is not making military alliances with partner countries to attack Europe, which views Russia as its top threat, he said. For the US, Russia is a distant second after China.
Even so, there still may be changes afoot.
Moscow is pushing a narrative of the Global South as a force in shaping an alternative world order, with the emerging nations of BRICS — anchored by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — forming an economic bloc.
Russia is the BRICS chair this year, and Putin has invited Mongolia to join the group’s summit in October. Malaysia applied to join the group, and Indonesia is also considering an invitation to join the bloc. Turkey has also said it’s interested in joining the group.
“Indonesia, Malaysia, and Mongolia are an interesting test of those nations’ ‘neutrality’ toward China, the US, international law (e.g., ICC), and the authority of the United Nations system,” McFate said.
Russia’s push for a multipolar world order resonates with countries who desire a more equitable international order. And Moscow has shown it does have influence over lower- and middle-income countries, as evidenced by the non-participation or low-level participation of some Asian countries in June’s Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at RAND, a think tank, wrote in a July commentary for Foreign Policy.
“While Russia’s sway is not at the level of China’s or the United States’, it is certainly enough to promote its anti-Western interests and disrupt the already precarious regional order,” wrote Grossman.
Countries around the world are weighing the dynamics.
“Regional allies will watch with interest to see if great powers can be played off each other,” McFate said.
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