- “Red One” cost $250 million to make and grossed $34 million in North America on its opening weekend.
- That doesn’t mean “Red One” is a failure.
- How it performs on Amazon Prime Video matters more.
“Red One,” starring Chris Evans, Dwayne Johnson, and Lucy Liu, reportedly cost $350 million to make and market — and grossed $34 million in North America in its opening weekend.
Alongside the $50 million it has made since premiering internationally on November 6, the action comedy — in which the head of North Pole security teams up with a hacker to save Santa from kidnappers — has so far made $84 million.
This may sound disappointing for a film featuring actors from billion-dollar franchises — particularly as “Red One” will have to compete with “Wicked and “Gladiator 2” from Friday, and “Moana 2” from next week in the run up to Christmas.
But media experts told Business Insider that Amazon MGM could still profit from “Red One” and likely won’t view it as a failure.
Of all the non-IP releases this year, “Red One” made the most in its opening weekend, beating “If,” “Civil War,” and “Bob Marley: One Love.”
Rob Mitchell, the director of theatrical insights at film industry research firm Gower Street Analytics, told BI that analysts predicted “Red One” would make roughly $34 million in its opening weekend, similar to Johnson’s other films “Jungle Cruise,” “Rampage,” “Central Intelligence,” and “Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle.”
Not turning a profit in theaters seems to have been the plan all along. Amazon MGM hopes the theatrical release will generate buzz for the film before it lands on Amazon Prime Video, Variety reported on Sunday. “Red One” received an A- CinemaScore and has a Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 90%.
Positive word of mouth could attract new subscribers and in turn more viewers who watch ads, which is how Amazon MGM would recoup its investment in “Red One,” Matthias Frey, the head of the Department of Media, Culture, and Creative Industries at City, University of London, told BI.
It’s unclear when “Red One” will be released on Prime Video and Amazon does not release viewership numbers for all of its releases, so we may never know how well it performs.
“No doubt if this bet does not pay off, there could be reluctance in future to repeat, as reported, paying a star like Johnson $50 million for his involvement,” Frey said. Variety reported that Johnson was paid $30 million for “Red One,” but could earn $50 million from profits.
Amazon doesn’t need to make hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office for ‘Red One’ to be a success
“Red One” was initially going to premiere on Amazon Prime Video, but Amazon MGM later pivoted to a theatrical release.
In recent years, Amazon, Netflix, and AppleTV+ have given their most high-profile titles such as “Hit Man,” “Air,” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” short theatrical releases to build hype and make them eligible for awards.
Kevin Wilson, the head of theatrical distribution at Amazon MGM, told Variety on Sunday that the theatrical release of “Red One” could cover its marketing (print and advertising) costs.
“We’re getting a massive marketing campaign that’s being paid for before the film gets to streaming,” he said.
What could harm Amazon more than losing money at the box office are reports that “Red One” has flopped in theaters, because Prime Video is a tool for Amazon to attract consumers to its other services, Jezz Vernon, a London-based film producer and a senior lecturer in film and industry studies at the University of Exeter, UK, told BI.
“If Prime Video is essentially an elaborate (and highly effective) branding exercise, then the logic requires pairing the service with positive stories, commercial success, good critical response,” he said.
There’s hope yet for ‘Red One’
Mitchell said more people might embrace “Red One” once the festive season is in full swing.
The total profit that “Red One” will make in theaters now depends on cinemas continuing to screen it despite what is, wrongly or rightly, being viewed as a disappointing performance at the box office.
And if audiences think “Red One” will come to Amazon Prime Video during Christmas, they may choose “Wicked,” “Moana 2,” and “Gladiator 2” instead.
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