Newsletter Saturday, October 12

US stock futures traded mixed on Tuesday to begin the new quarter, as investors waited for fresh jobs and manufacturing data to provide clues to the path of interest-rate cuts.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) slid 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) were little changed, each coming off a fresh record close. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) rose 0.2%

Stocks are getting October and the fourth quarter off to a variable start as the market digests the latest comments from Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve chair said that policymakers aren’t in a hurry to lower rates even as they strive to keep the economy on a solid footing, prompting traders to ramp down bets on another 0.5% cut.

Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

A report on August job openings due later could reset those bets if it comes in softer than expected, given the Fed’s focus is now firmly on the labor market. Updates from ISM and S&P Global on manufacturing activity are also likely to draw attention for clues on how quickly the US economy is slowing.

The readings will prepare the ground for the September jobs report release on Friday, the highlight in a week full of closely watched economic data. Investors are watching for confirmation that the US economy is cooling, rather than crumbling.

Meanwhile, a strike by dockworkers began on the East and Gulf coasts, threatening to halt the flow of half the US’s ocean shipping. Disruption from large-scale stoppage could cost the economy billions of dollars a day, stoke inflation and put jobs at risk, as well as reverberate through US politics.

Investors were keeping a watchful eye on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, after Israeli troops moved into Lebanon.

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