Newsletter Tuesday, November 5

Taiwan is pushing forward its plans to build a new submarine fleet to deter China, with seven vessels planned over the next 14 years.

But the decision is mired in disagreements. The fleet plans will cost Taipei billions of dollars and have prompted a certain degree of political criticism, especially as Taiwan’s first sub hasn’t completed sea trials yet.

Taiwan’s new administration, led by President Lai Ching-te, said last week it wants to invest almost $9 billion into a domestically built submarine fleet. The plans for call for the construction of seven more vessels from 2025 to 2038.

Local legislators are expected to review the budget before the end of August, but some opposition lawmakers have already voiced concerns about the plan to bet big on a fleet of submarines to defend the island nation.

Among opposition complaints, beyond the steep cost of the program, is that Taiwan’s first domestically made submarine, the Narwhal, isn’t combat-ready and has yet to undergo sea trials due to delays. It’s unclear if those important development steps will be completed before the end of the year, leaving uncertainty and the question of its worth going all-in on a costly gamble.

“What problem will Narwhal have? Which areas will need reinforcements?” Jaw Shaw-kong, a member of the Kuomintang party and the vice presidential candidate during the past election, said, per regional reporting. “No idea.”

Building a capable fleet of submarines has been a growing priority for Taiwan in recent years amid tensions with China and concerns over how to defend itself from an invasion or blockade, but Taipei has had to pursue the effort mostly independently. Taiwan received little foreign support in building the Narwhal, partially because of its geographic isolation and also due to pressure from China intended to deter other nations from supporting Taiwan.

China claims sovereignty over Taiwan, and it has consistently signaled its desire for unification, by force if necessary.

Taiwan has two Dutch-made subs from the 1980s and two even older former US Navy subs commissioned in the 1940s and given in the 1970s, but the Narwhal marks a major improvement and helps usher in an opportunity for Taiwan to build a modern submarine force.

Notably, the Narwhal will be equipped with Mk-48 Mod 6 Advanced Technology Heavy Weight Torpedoes, which may arrive in Taipei as early as next year. Taiwan bought those weapons from the US in 2018.



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