With the confirmation of the presidency of Ursula von der Leyen, the building out of her cabinet now takes shape. Von der Leyen has asked that each country puts forward a male and female candidate, with the interview process starting in mid to late August and a ‘panel’ of commissioners will be in place in early September. Commissioners are then confirmed by Parliament in October, and the new Commission is expected to be in place by the start of November. The EC has already started work on the Commissioner profiles/agendas, and overall we expect a tilt from ‘Green Deal’ to ‘Security and Innovation’.
Several senior commissioners are expected to stay on in the Commission, notably Maros Sefcovic (Vice President and has led the Green Deal), Valdis Dombrovskis (Vice President, Trade). We have also heard that Thierry Breton is keen to remain in place. The financial services seat that is currently held by Mairead McGuiness may not naturally pass to Michael McGrath (Ireland’s nominee). This could pass to Wopke Hoekstra the current Dutch commissioner who is likely to be reappointed. There is also talk that Teresa Ribera a senior Spanish minister is being positioned for the EU Energy/Green deal portfolio.
In Italy Meloni is apparently likely to propose Raffaelo Fitto the current EU minister – with Italy’s spy chief ElizaBelloni, a possible candidate also. Meloni will apparently position Fitto for the cohesion funds or an economic commission seat.
It is expected that there will be a couple of new commission roles – a commissioner for the Mediterranean and a defence commissioner. The latter will be a very interesting portfolio – and we expect that it will have an industrial policy (re-armament) focus. It was widely reported that Radoslaw Sikorski the Polish foreign minister might be the lead candidate, but he is apparently reluctant, and another country (Sweden?) might pick this up.
In summary, Ursula von der Leyen is politically far more powerful than she was five years ago, and this will permit her to craft the next Commission – in terms of downgrading some countries (Ireland and France?) and building new portfolios (Mediterranean and Defence). Karin Kallas will be an iconic foreign representative and on balance, power will shift from the west of Europe towards the east (i.e. Poland). The Commission staff are busy mapping portfolios this summer, and preparing for geopolitical scenarios like a second Trump presidency.
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