Wall Street voiced bullish comments following the Gamescom 2024 event, where video gaming giant Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:) made some significant announcements. TTWO shares closed 2.8% higher on Tuesday.
The European Gamescom convention opened with unexpected announcements that Borderlands 4 from 2K’s Gearbox studio and Mafia: The Old Country from 2K’s Hangar 13 are both set to release in calendar 2025 (FY26).
The teaser trailers shown by TTWO were brief and offered no gameplay or specific release dates, only indicating a 2025 launch.
“With no leaks beforehand, the genuine surprise 2025 launch dates of Borderlands 4 and Mafia from Gamescom give us increased confidence to raise our FY26 bookings and EPS,” analysts commented. They now project that FY26 bookings will exceed $8.1 billion
“The conversation is already shifting to how TTWO plans to fit all this content in 2025 without cannibalization, and whether this could mean a potential GTA delay, though we don’t believe so,” analysts continued. “GTA technically already was delayed, and this could be the knock-on effect.”
The announcements have led analysts to further increase their FY26 EPS estimate to $7.02, a rise of approximately $1.50 over the past six months. However, they caution that questions remain about the timing of releases in FY26 and whether TTWO can sustain bookings growth in FY27 following an anticipated strong 44% growth in FY26.
Separately, analysts believe that both Borderlands and Mafia will significantly contribute to FY26 bookings. They now estimate $500 million in bookings from Borderlands 4 (10 million units) and $250 million from Mafia: The Old Country (5 million units) in FY26.
As such, the bank has adjusted its forecast, moving Borderlands 4 to FY26 from its previous FY27 slot, and now model $8.8 billion in net bookings for FY26 and $9.0 billion for FY27.
They expect upward revisions in FY26 bookings and EPS estimates across the Street, as many sell-side analysts likely had not factored in both titles.
With this adjustment, the bank’s FY26 net bookings estimate now sits at the high end of Street expectations.
Looking ahead to FY27, they still forecast higher year-over-year net bookings, driven by growth in GTA Online following the launch of GTA 6, and contributions from other major AAA releases such as the Max Payne Remake and BioShock.
“While investor focus remains on GTA 6’s launch timeline, we think the latest title announcements showcase the potential of the rest of the FY26/27 immersive core slate, which is likely underappreciated,” they wrote.
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