Applying to jobs is tough, try doing it 2,200 times

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The big story

Not hiring

How tough is the current job market? Imagine striking out roughly 2,200 times.

That’s the reality for Kevin Cash, who has had a tough time finding a new gig since getting laid off in late 2022. He spoke to Business Insider’s Tim Paradis about his discouraging job-seeking journey.

The job market is in a weird spot these days. Unemployment is still relatively low, sitting at around 4.2%. But August’s labor data showed US nonfarm payrolls were weaker than expected, adding 142,000 jobs instead of the expected 164,000.

So while a ton of people aren’t out of work (Good!), companies aren’t hiring a lot of new workers either (Bad!). For some, that means getting stuck in a job you might not love. But for people like Kevin, it’s become almost impossible to find work.

On paper — and maybe in another labor market — Kevin appears to be the perfect candidate. He has a background in a growing field (business intelligence and semiconductor manufacturing), he’s well-educated (five degrees, including an MBA), smart (a member of high-IQ society Mensa), and a veteran.

But instead it’s been rejection after rejection for Kevin. Forget even getting a job offer. A foot in the door is proving maddeningly hard. By Kevin’s math (he tracks his applications in a database) he has a 0.55% chance of getting a phone screener and a 0.28% chance of an interview.

Kevin’s case might be extreme, but it’s not uncommon.

White-collar workers, in particular, are having a hard time finding new jobs. It’s a tough reality check for employees who previously held all the power in the job market.

The bright side is a shift in tides could be on the horizon. The Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates next week. That, coupled with fears of a recession subsiding, could give businesses some confidence in getting more aggressive with their hiring.

But we’re not likely to return to the zero-rate boon times of a few years ago. The efficiencies achieved over the past few years from cost cutting aren’t going to be given up by companies easily.

And even if they do manage to get some breathing room, the type of hiring companies might consider could be very specific. Making the most of AI investments remains a top priority for tech companies, meaning the limited amount of talent with experience in that field is likely to be the big winner.

News brief

Top headlines

3 things in markets

1. Trump? Harris? For these stocks, it doesn’t really matter. As long as economic growth continues, semiconductor businesses and companies that invest in the debt or equity of smaller companies stand to benefit regardless of November’s result, according to strategists at Oppenheimer Research. Check out these seven election-proof stocks. (For what it’s worth, the stock market reacted as if Harris won Tuesday’s debate.)

   2. The latest inflation data is bad news for people banking on a bigger rate cut. The consumer price index continued to cool, but an unexpected rise in core inflation means a 50-basis-point cut by the Fed next week is now unlikely. Investors aren’t pumped.

   3. The start of something new for hedge-fund fees? The $11 billion ExodusPoint just made a concession on fees that could ripple across the industry. So far, they’re the biggest name in the space to adopt a so-called “cash hurdle.”

3 things in tech

1. Twitter flees San Francisco. More than a decade ago, the city gave the company a massive tax break to stay put when it threatened to move to the suburbs. At the time it worked — but now Elon Musk is over it. Here’s how it all went south. (Literally, since X is moving to Austin.)

   2. Hell hath no fury like an influencer scorned. Apple is taking a bigger bite out of the creator economy: its whopping 30% in-app fee has spread to more creator platforms, and it takes a cut of donations and purchases on iOS. Creators are fuming and say the company gives little in return for the money it takes.

   3. Jensen Huang’s great expectations. In a conversation with Goldman Sachs chief David Soloman, the Nvidia CEO painted a picture of the big returns on AI infrastructure. Although costs may double, companies get things done 20 times faster with generative AI, Huang said. “It’s not unusual to see this ROI,” he added.

3 things in business

1. Lower mortgage rates won’t unlock the housing market. Mortgage rates are inching lower as the market expects Fed cuts, which will allow more buyers to afford a home. But Zillow’s chief economist sees some other potential issues that could send home prices soaring again.
2. There’s one debate question both Trump and Harris dodged. Neither candidate gave much detail about how they will fix the economy, leaving many Americans confused about taxes and tariffs. Here’s what you need to know about Harris’ “opportunity economy” and how it compares to Trump’s plan.
3. Starbucks’ new CEO wants you to stay a while. Brian Niccol hinted the chain may have gotten a little too convenient in an open letter published Tuesday, his second day on the job. “We’re committed to elevating the in-store experience,” Niccol wrote — giving a clue about the changes he’ll oversee at the chain.

In other news

What’s happening today

• Kroger and other companies report earnings.
• London Fashion Week begins..

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.