Democratic presidential nominees have won New York in every election since 1988, generally by double-digits.
The 2020 election was no different, as President Joe Biden won the state by 23 points, powered largely by his massive advantage in New York City and its suburbs.
But this year, Biden’s tepid poll numbers in New York point to a general election contest that could be remarkably closer than any presidential race in recent memory, a scenario that could sink the campaigns of down-ballot Democrats.
Empire State Democrats have taken notice and are urging the Biden campaign to invest resources in the state to not only improve his standing but also aid Democratic candidates in critical swing House districts, according to Politico.
In pointing to Biden’s potentially vulnerability, Politico revealed that in two private polls taken over the past year, former President Donald Trump led Biden by one point in a battleground House district.
In a Siena College poll taken in mid-June, Biden posted an eight-point lead (47% to 39%) over Trump statewide, despite having won 61% of the statewide vote in 2020. The survey also showed that Biden’s job approval rating in New York was 45%, with 53% of voters disapproving of his performance. While Biden had a 54% job approval rating in New York City, it sat at 38% in the city’s suburbs.
And these figures were taken before Biden’s disastrous debate performance against Trump late last month, which have pushed his numbers down nationally and even led some New York Democrats to call for the president to step aside as the party’s standard-bearer.
While Biden is still overwhelmingly favored to win New York State this November, the latest numbers indicate the general election could be much closer than many might imagine.
Mark Levine, the borough president of Manhattan, told Politico that New York has become a more competitive state in recent years.
“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” the Democrat told the publication. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
Since 2020, Democrats have had to fend off renewed GOP support in Long Island. And over the past two years, they’ve struggled to handle the influx of migrants to New York City from the US-Mexico border.
In the 2022 midterms, Democrats fared much better than had been predicted, but they underperformed in New York, with Gov. Kathy Hochul only narrowly winning reelection and the GOP sweeping key House districts on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley.
It’s something that Democrats are thinking about this year as many officials reexamine their support for Biden’s candidacy — fearing that he might weigh down other candidates.
While Hochul reaffirmed her support for Biden after a meeting at the White House last week, New York Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado on Wednesday called on Biden to forgo his reelection bid.
And Rep. Pat Ryan, a swing-district Democrat from the Hudson Valley-anchored 18th district, also said the president should step aside as the party’s nominee ahead of November.
So while Biden remains the favorite to carry New York once again, his troubles in other parts of the country are also evident in one of his strongest-performing states.
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