- Disney surprised many media analysts by sharing earnings guidance through 2027.
- There’s little precedent for such a move, which reflects the Mouse House’s confidence.
- Here’s what may be behind the move as Bob Iger looks to solidify his legacy.
Disney’s head-turning decision to share three years’ worth of earnings guidance is a fascinating strategic move — and may be part of a bigger play from legacy-minded CEO Bob Iger.
The Mouse House pleased analysts this week with its quarterly earnings report, as operating income rose 23% while revenue advanced by 6%. Highlights included a more than four-fold increase in entertainment earnings and a $321 million profit in streaming, including ESPN+.
Those solid results, however, were upstaged by Disney lifting the curtain on its internal outlook through 2027. The entertainment giant said investors can expect high-single-digit earnings growth in 2025, followed by a double-digit improvement in each of the next two years.
Wall Street was generally surprised by the disclosure, as it’s exceedingly rare for a company to be that transparent about the road ahead — especially one as typically tight-lipped as Disney.
“I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything this specific and this detailed,” veteran Macquarie media analyst Tim Nollen said of that multi-year guidance in a Friday interview with Business Insider.
Robert Fishman, a media analyst at MoffettNathanson, wrote in a November 14 report that “this level and specificity of guidance may represent a whole new world for Disney.”
But there’s more to this unprecedented move than just throwing investors a bone.
Iger also seems to be showing off the progress Disney has made during his second stint as CEO, while outlining how his company is set up for long-term success. By doing so, he can tell the world that he’s not leaving his yet-to-be-named successor in the lurch (though that also puts pressure on them to deliver).
Bob-ing and weaving
Disney’s earnings report and presentation were littered with comparisons to two years ago, which seems deliberate — if subtle. That’s when Iger returned to Disney to take over for Bob Chapek, whose brief helm at the Mouse House will live in infamy for lackluster financial performance.
Here’s part of the first sentence of Iger’s earnings-report statement: “Thanks to the significant progress we’ve made, we have emerged from a period of considerable challenges and disruption well positioned for growth and optimistic about our future.”
Then there’s the third slide of Disney’s earnings presentation, which illustrates how its streaming business swung from a $1.5 billion quarterly loss in late 2022 — Chapek’s last quarter as CEO — to a $321 million profit. Two slides later, Disney shows off the progress it has made under Iger in the last year.
While Chapek made many missteps, he was dealt a tough hand. Iger hand-picked his heir in February 2020, just as the pandemic took hold. And the former parks head was never fully given the reins at Disney, as Iger undermined the man he reportedly called “Little Bob” early and often.
Iger surely knows he must get succession right this time, both to cement his legacy as a Disney legend and atone for what’s arguably the biggest blemish on his nearly two-decade run as CEO.
That’s something to keep in mind when considering the company’s choice to give guidance through 2027. Disney recently said that it would name its next CEO in early 2026.
With this forecast, Iger is showing the world that he has set up his successor well — at least by Disney’s own forecasts.
Nollen said that by issuing this multi-year guidance, Disney is “clearing the decks and getting out from under this cloud of all this change and all this uncertainty, and looking forward positively.”
Succession has been the biggest subplot at Disney for years, and there will be some anxiety until it’s settled. In the meantime, Iger has given Wall Street something else to focus on.
“I would guess Bob Iger is feeling the pressure to demonstrate that he has set the company back on the right track,” Nollen said. “And by giving such thorough guidance, yes, it clears a pathway for investors to understand — or at least to believe — that the company has things under control.”
Read the full article here
