Investing.com — Investors could see a “more sustained opportunity” to increase their exposure to emerging market assets once the risks associated with the upcoming US election pass, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:).
However, in a note to clients on Monday, the analysts said that for now they are choosing to “fade the bounce” — or trade against — a rebound in emerging market equities last week following China’s announcement of a raft of new stimulus measures aimed at rejuvenating activity in the world’s second-largest economy.
“The stimulus package unveiled last week is helpful, but likely more needs to be done to address growth concerns. Largely monetary support, rather than fiscal, might be less impactful for strengthening final demand,” the analysts wrote.
Meanwhile, they flagged that after Donald Trump, the current Republican presidential candidate, won the 2016 election, emerging market assets underperformed developed market peers by 10% for two months. The analysts called this a “meaningful sell-off.”
This year the race between Trump and Democratic rival Kamala Harris remains tight in the final weeks before the Nov. 5 vote. Recent polls have suggested that Harris holds only a narrow lead over Trump, while the two are close in several crucial swing states that will likely influence the outcome of the ballot.
A win for Trump — whose economic plans are highlighted by steep import tariffs, including a 60% duty on those coming from China — could cause emerging market assets to be a “laggard,” the JPMorgan analysts said.
They added that this would particularly be the case in the event of a so-called “red sweep,” in which Republicans win the White House and control of both chambers of the US Congress.
“The risk at present is the prospect of a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, along with the inflationary impact from tariffs on other countries, as well as the potentially stronger [US dollar], which could all lead to the selling of [emerging market] assets in the event of Trump winning the upcoming election,” the analysts said.
On the other hand, a Harris victory — and a Congress divided by Republicans and Democrats — could lead to these assets “start[ing] to perform better more sustainably,” the analysts argued. The vice president has hit out at Trump’s tariffs plans as a “sales tax,” but has not explicitly disavowed current President Joe Biden’s move to expand tariffs on items like steel and electric vehicles coming from China.
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