Russian forces conducted a series of mechanized assaults in eastern Ukraine this week, fighting with a mixture of armored combat vehicles and infantry in different locations to try and break through Kyiv’s defensive lines.
Conflict analysts say these armored assaults are constrained to specific areas and may reflect the limits of Moscow’s offensive power and inability to execute a large-scale, multi-directional offensive operation.
Russian forces carried out several mechanized assaults in the Donetsk region over the past few days along different directions of the front line, but these sporadic efforts appeared limited in their effectiveness.
One such attempt saw Moscow commit 10 tanks and motorcycles, a buggy, and nearly 50 fighting vehicles, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War think tank, who described the assaults as “localized mechanized pushes.”
These “periodic and pulsating Russian mechanized assaults likely represent the extent of Russia’s current offensive capacity, and Russia is unlikely to mount a distinct new summer offensive operation due to material and manpower constraints,” the analysts wrote in an assessment on Wednesday.
The analysts said Russia has struggled throughout the war to stage multiple large-scale offensive operations simultaneously. Instead, it appears more inclined to conduct assaults in “pulses,” where the intensity varies in different areas of the front lines.
“The Russian military command may assess that these periodic, pulsating mechanized assaults are either sufficient to accomplish the command’s revised, more limited objectives for the summer of 2024 or that these assaults are the extent of Russian forces’ current capabilities,” the analysts said.
They added that “the Russian military command may also be trying to push degraded Russian forces in the area to advance as far as possible before their combat capabilities culminate, regardless of the losses those forces take in the process.”
Russia launched a limited assault against Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region in early May, seemingly setting the stage for a broader offensive this summer that would test a Ukrainian military facing shortages in weaponry and manpower.
But Ukraine has held out. US officials have commended Ukraine for braving the Russian attacks, arguing that the passage of additional security assistance in April unlocked the crucial delivery of military aid to the front lines and thus helped thwart the offensive.
John Kirby, the White House National Security Council spokesperson, said “there were legitimate concerns that Russia would achieve a strategic breakthrough on the battlefield” while the US — and Ukraine — waited for US lawmakers to pass additional security assistance.
But “Ukraine’s defensive lines have been fortified, and Ukrainian forces have continued to fight bravely and to repel Russia’s advances,” Kirby told reporters on Monday.
He added that “over the past few months, Russia has suffered extraordinary costs, sacrificing thousands of Russian soldiers for very little gain.”
However, ISW analysts noted that Russia’s ongoing offensive operations are still very costly for Ukraine and are likely an attempt to reduce the country’s military capabilities through attrition, regardless of how much territory it seizes.
The think tank’s analysts have previously noted that this is likely Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory. In late June, ISW noted that “Russian forces continue to prioritize gradual advances through consistent grinding assaults over operationally significant gains through rapid maneuver.”
The analysts said that Russia aims to “win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces,” exhausting its manpower and materiel. Still, Russia has also struggled to bring organized offensive combat power to bear on the Ukrainians.
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