Newsletter Tuesday, November 5

For a decade, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held a decisive grip on his country’s politics.

But as election results roll in on Tuesday, it appears Modi’s grip may be slipping.

Modi, who leads India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is claiming victory for a historic third term as the country’s prime minister. But, even though Modi is projected to hold onto his position, his party isn’t doing as well as he predicted.

Though India is still counting the votes in its 2024 general election, one unexpected trend is emerging: Modi’s party is projected to lose its majority in Parliament. That’s a big blow to Modi, whose party was long expected to win a full majority in Parliament.

Now, he’ll have to gather enough allies to form a government.

The BJP’s main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, performed better than expected, according to preliminary results.

The Indian National Congress had set a goal to double its 52 seats in Parliament, and as of Tuesday afternoon, it had a lead in almost 100 seats, The New York Times reported. It was also leading in nearly 230 races, according to the Times.

In an election that saw record voter turnout — with 642 million people voting, according to Al Jazeera, in the seven-phase process that began in April and ended on Saturday — the surprise results indicate that voters’ trust in the BJP is waning.

The BJP’s Hindutva ideology promotes Hindu nationalism, which critics have accused of stoking anti-Muslim hate and right-wing extremism.

Modi has even accused the Congress party of plotting to redistribute India’s wealth to the Muslim minority, BI previously reported. Modi has denied targeting the Muslim minority to win the favor of the Hindu majority, Reuters reported.

Though Modi is still popular across India, some see him as an authoritarian leader, and his opponents called signs of his fading power a victory for democracy on Tuesday.

The president of the Congress, Mallikarjun Kharge, called the election a “moral and political loss” for Modi, adding that, “This is public’s victory and a win for democracy,” PBS News Hour reported.

Raghuram Rajan, the former Reserve Bank of India Governor, echoed Kharge’s sentiment in a post on LinkedIn.

“The Indian voter has spoken,” Rajan wrote. “And what a wise decision! This is a win for Indian democracy and a win for the Indian economy. Regardless of what happens over the next few days, we will have a strong opposition that forces the government to change course.”

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