Newsletter Wednesday, October 16

US stock futures took a breather on Wednesday as investors waited for results from Morgan Stanley (MS) and others to potentially power a rebound to record highs after an ASML (ASML)-fueled slide.

Futures on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) hugged the flatline, while contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were down 0.1%.

All three major gauges pulled back from all-time highs on Tuesday as ASML’s deep cut to its 2025 sales forecast dented faith in the AI chip trade, driving down stocks like Nvidia (NVDA). Markets are on alert for any fresh news from ASML on the day the chip tool maker’s apparently accidentally released earnings were scheduled to land.

Eyes are on Morgan Stanley’s quarterly report before the bell for signs of the Wall Street comeback that has boosted big bank earnings this week. A strong showing would give weight to optimism that the US economy is headed for a “soft landing”.

At the same time, disappointing earnings from ASML, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and luxury stalwart LVMH (MC.PA, LVMUY) have an otherwise bullish Wall Street on the lookout for signs of weakness elsewhere. Abbott (ABT), Alcoa (AA), and Discover Financial Services (DFS) are on the docket on Wednesday.

In commodities, gold (GC=F) rallied toward a fresh record high as fresh tariff promises from Republican nominee Donald Trump added to uncertainty around the outcome of the tight US presidential race.

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