He was already in a difficult spot before his debate with former President Donald Trump. Since his horrendous performance, Biden has, at best, fallen slightly further behind. At worst, some New York Democrats are afraid the race there could be much closer than expected. A Republican hasn’t won the Empire State since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine told Politico. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
Political prognosticators are moving more states closer to Trump. While no one is ready to say he has a chance in New York, the former president now has better chances in Minnesota and New Hampshire — even New Mexico could become closely contested.
“The notion that the presidential is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate,” Dave Wasserman, senior editor & elections analyst for Cook Political Report, wrote on X. “Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.”
Even some voices that were once close to Biden are expressing some uneasiness.
“I think the questions and worries about Biden’s path are legitimate. I think Biden has work to do, but I think he can do it,” former White House communications director Kate Bedingfield wrote on X in a series of posts. “We need to see it, though, and we need to see it soon.”
Bedingfield has cautioned Democrats who think ditching Biden will somehow make it significantly easier to beat Trump.
Biden’s path was already narrow before the debate. He hasn’t led in a single poll conducted in Georgia, a state he won by only 12,670 votes, throughout this entire cycle, according to Decision Desk HQ. There isn’t better news in Arizona, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average Trump is up over 5 points there. Nevada, a state Democrats have carried since 2008, also looks bad.
The president’s best-case scenario would be to fall back on Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Omaha-metro area 2nd District in Nebraska. Cook Political Report, a widely respected political prediction group, moved the Nebraska 2nd closer to Trump on Tuesday when it moved five states closer to the former president.
Biden now has the unfortunate distinction of being the first Democratic candidate to trail in national polling in July of an election year since Vice President Al Gore in 2000. Biden’s dismal approval rating of approximately 38% has remains below the roughly 48% threshold incumbents have needed to win reelection. Biden’s worst 2020 position was a four point lead over Trump, according to CNN. Biden now trails the former president by anywhere between 2 to 3 points nationally.
“Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win this election, and maybe win it by a landslide, and take with him the Senate and the House,” Sen. Michael Bennett, a Colorado Democrat, told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Tuesday evening. “So for me, this isn’t a question about polling. It’s not a question about politics. It’s a moral question about the future of our country.”
Biden’s campaign does not share the same state of panic. Their belief is that Trump’s campaign will rue its decision to opt against an extensive on-the-ground presence in the key battleground states.
“For months, the Biden-Harris campaign has been on the ground talking to the voters who will decide this election, and Donald Trump’s been nowhere to be found. Now, with just over four months until the election, Donald Trump couldn’t match our battleground infrastructure if he tried,” Biden-Harris 2024 battleground states director Dan Kanninen said in a statement.
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